Savanna Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences 4(2):43-51
Transmission rate of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria
Mmaduakor, C. O, Adejuwon, S. O, Adeyefa, E.A., Ajewole, O. R., Ngwu, B. A, and Kuboye J.O
ABSTRACT
To determine the magnitude of the daily transmission rate and predict the future trends of spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). A retrospective national review of the all confirmed and new cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria obtained from the daily record of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control from 28th February 2020 to 11th July 2020 were computed and analysis. The average daily transmission rate is 7.6% implying an approximate transmission of 8 out of every 100 persons tested. The distribution of the transmission rate of COVID-19 in Nigeria has random decreasing trend. The cumulative transmission rate was 10.1848. Additional, there slight variations between the predicted and actual transmission rate of COVID-19 for the month June 2020. It also shows that the ARIMA model (0, 1, 1) was adequate for the estimation of transmission rate of COVID-19 in Nigeria within the observed period
